Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92c5cb953c424f83c29bec989879522ccfeece4b94443877fb87a0d23faa79be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 60c | 817.38$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.12 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 316.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 76c | 219.43$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 127.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed No | 77c | 126.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 124.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 17c | 117.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 115.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 115.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 115$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…977fbacked Yes | 21c | 97.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 23c | 92.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 91.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 89.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…98e8backed Yes | 16c | 86.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 27c | 81.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 22c | 78.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 77c | 76.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 76.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 23c | 69.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 70c | 68.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 32c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 67.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed Yes | 28c | 66.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 28c | 66.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 22c | 65.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b2…30abbacked Yes | 29c | 64.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 62.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 56.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 22c | 55.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 55.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 54.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 52.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a6…bb90backed Yes | 21c | 51.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Yes | 30c | 50.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 50.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 77c | 48.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 35c | 48.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 48.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa2…e23abacked No | 71c | 47.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes | 22c | 46.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 78c | 45.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 44.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 28c | 43.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 24c | 43.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ce1dbacked No | 31c | 43.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 40.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 76c | 37.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 67c | 37.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…9b79backed Yes | 31c | 36.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 75c | 32.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 38c | 30.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…ea87backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 79c | 29.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 38c | 29.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 76c | 28.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 26.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 56c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 77c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 79c | 24.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 79c | 22.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 73c | 20.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 78c | 20.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 13.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.