Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21b17ff53bbe53e0e2b8c1b806a6cff45ac6d6569455802d96ffec3f742d3512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 22c | 377.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 21c | 310.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 239.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 15c | 190.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 175.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 11c | 135.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 10c | 131.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 127.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 124.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 110.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 93.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…3ebdbacked Yes | 18c | 86.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 13c | 85.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 22c | 75.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 79c | 74.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 66.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 64.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…791fbacked Yes | 22c | 64.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 80c | 46.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 79c | 39.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2af…c477backed No | 78c | 39.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 79c | 22.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.