South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Platense: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92c9b46ae9016024c215d24e8be4b2df07cdaf4e5ed47a39fe127dc170ceeb30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,051 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.98 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 4,123$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.24 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 42c | 1,285$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.7 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Over | 49c | 774.96$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.23 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 688.82$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.56 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 52c | 460.06$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.72 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 41c | 393.45$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.45 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 389.48$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.91 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 336.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.72 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 46c | 244.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.23 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 43c | 96.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 55c | 91.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…398cbacked Under | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 50c | 59.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d88…3effbacked Under | 27c | 39.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 58c | 33.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 53c | 29.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2273…7e01backed Under | 54c | 28.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 73c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…c3e9backed Under | 46c | 25.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…f69fbacked Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 58c | 22.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…76a9backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Platense: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Platense: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Platense: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Platense: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-2.5)CA Platense won
- Spread: CA Platense (-2.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.