Champions League · resolved market
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92cf379dcebf98b930d722148bbc1c1cef57ded343b7105ea0df272b371abec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 31c | 999.76$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.93 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 69c | 795.2$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.51 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…684dbacked Yes | 31c | 463.84$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.79 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd023…9d2abacked Yes | 32c | 299.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 68c | 287.48$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Yes | 32c | 285.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 22c | 158$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…af92backed Yes | 31c | 154.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 151.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 68c | 140.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed No | 69c | 126.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked No | 76c | 97.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…95e9backed Yes | 31c | 92.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 21c | 63.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 69c | 58.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked No | 69c | 49.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd194…f651backed Yes | 32c | 48.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 64c | 30.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 69c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed No | 69c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 69c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF leading at halftime?this page
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?Yes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.