Champions League · resolved market
FC Bayern München leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e3724f799914251c957db00bc431d8e429d01cebb1f949bf764c6df46d0ac7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked No | 75c | 6,192$4,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,665.28 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked Yes | 37c | 3,138$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e3…23bfbacked No | 3c | 2,326$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3076…5924backed Yes | 1c | 2,205$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,182.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked No | 64c | 1,558$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.23 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 63c | 1,167$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.21 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 35c | 819$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.68 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf171…85febacked Yes | 36c | 801.33$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.85 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Yes | 4c | 640.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +418.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Yes | 4c | 623.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc674…dcd2backed Yes | 36c | 611.68$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Yes | 35c | 542.86$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.44 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 65c | 496.42$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.67 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 63c | 466.8$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.09 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 65c | 392.44$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.26 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 64c | 382.84$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.35 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 35c | 299.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.98 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Yes | 36c | 275$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.27per pick | 47cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 63c | 234.54$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.57 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed No | 65c | 232.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.11 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 36c | 213.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.76 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 65c | 187$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 65c | 130$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked No | 76c | 88.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0e…abd1backed No | 67c | 88.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…481cbacked Yes | 35c | 55.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +147%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 65c | 54.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…236ebacked Yes | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fb…dd37backed Yes | 33c | 51.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 37c | 50.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 35c | 47.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 78c | 42.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…c203backed Yes | 39c | 36.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 67c | 31.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 67c | 31.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked No | 66c | 29.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked No | 66c | 28.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…acafbacked No | 66c | 27.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 66c | 27.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 65c | 21.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?this page
- Real Madrid CF leading at halftime?No won
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.