Champions League · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a67cfac155660d28d860429c943fbb3840fe0f02290f65582bd8e5cd83a1f64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 752.15$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.93 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74a9…0dc7backed Yes | 36c | 670.97$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.37 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 64c | 453.04$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.08 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 61c | 368.48$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.02 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Yes | 9c | 271.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Yes | 35c | 259.64$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 64c | 175.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…1d49backed Yes | 36c | 165.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed Yes | 34c | 149.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Yes | 35c | 115.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 64c | 98.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 65c | 77.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 64c | 57.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +7.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…268ebacked Yes | 35c | 54.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd194…f651backed Yes | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb320…bcf3backed Yes | 38c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 66c | 38.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…ade9backed No | 52c | 29.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…078cbacked No | 66c | 27.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…aba0backed Yes | 50c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked No | 66c | 23.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed No | 66c | 21.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime?this page
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?Yes won
- Real Madrid CF leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.