NHL · resolved market
DEL: Adler Mannheim vs. Grizzlys Wolfsburg
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92d81133ebca9328289c27a1ec1fc47fb42117cd654f32ec56e3a6b82eba14f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adler Mannheimof Adler Mannheim, Grizzlys Wolfsburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd600…9f58backed Adler Mannheim | 7c | 6,890$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,407.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Adler Mannheim | 69c | 174$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Adler Mannheim | 71c | 99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Adler Mannheim | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Grizzlys Wolfsburg | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Grizzlys Wolfsburg | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Adler Mannheim | 71c | 48.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Grizzlys Wolfsburg | 29c | 46.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Adler Mannheim | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Grizzlys Wolfsburg | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…a70dbacked Adler Mannheim | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Adler Mannheim | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Adler Mannheim | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef51…f58dbacked Adler Mannheim | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5514…72bdbacked Adler Mannheim | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.