Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $2.70 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92fec16fb845a1fa5803d5bf28e1c3f69f7e8aa1e0207337e414d6791a1c93a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 29c | 3,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 64c | 2,946$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.21 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 34c | 1,350$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe79e…55a2backed No | 61c | 222$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 28c | 190.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 32c | 180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed No | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…5c22backed No | 72c | 87.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…c4a9backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x738c…1de9backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 October 6-12?this page
- Will XRP dip to $2.30 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.80 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.90 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 October 6-12?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 October 6-12?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 October 6-12?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 October 6-12?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.50 October 6-12?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 October 6-12?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.70 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.