Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 49.0% and 49.4% on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x932f723eeae1538fbf954c1a616869dee7ca214993092bcd2c3fca339d60dc63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 500$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…79eebacked Yes | 53c | 428.9$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…bc07backed Yes | 32c | 246.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 41c | 162.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes | 33c | 125.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 63c | 98.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 28c | 43.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 79c | 37.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 58c | 36.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 49.0% and 49.4% on February 21?this page
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 51.0% or higher on February 21?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on February 21?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on February 21?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on February 21?Yes won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 49.5% and 49.9% on February 21?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.0% on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.