Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93509c73096622a1a81d21fc7d3a82e1dfde29f90796f1b53a4db42a2f7b628b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 41c | 508.27$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.75 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 496.07$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 407.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 324.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 15c | 281.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 270.69$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 22c | 194.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 12c | 139.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 15c | 126$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 79c | 108.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 89.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 84.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 25c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…1cbebacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 23c | 51.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 73c | 43.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 38.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 50c | 35.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 34.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 70c | 34.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 20.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…6747backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 80c | 17.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.