MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9354735e4239337b9908b97add1a61a8c19baa9fc4812aa2a350a7b784e0916a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,020 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 1,899$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.65 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 8c | 614$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 495.62$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.67 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Boston Red Sox | 49c | 486.51$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.49 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 445$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.15 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 361.66$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 191.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 171.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 149$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 135.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 125.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 122.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 122.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Boston Red Sox | 49c | 114.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 111.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 102.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 73.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…79afbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 61.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 341 | 64.2%219 W · 122 L | +22.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Boston Red Sox | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 28.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 27.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9730…0b31backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.