NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x937291d792a2c0e00aa415e0688fbfa4e43125da3037a6c0210e847cbfd3ec83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,846 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 78c | 700.38$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.88 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 22c | 507.34$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.8 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc06e…412abacked Over | 75c | 264$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 255$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…f156backed Over | 75c | 232$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 22c | 228.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.31 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 78c | 218.78$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.87 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…0603backed Under | 25c | 207$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…8eeebacked Under | 25c | 198$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…2509backed Over | 75c | 196$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…1c40backed Over | 75c | 180$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…bacfbacked Under | 25c | 174$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…f10dbacked Under | 25c | 157$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…db4cbacked Under | 25c | 136$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 22c | 136$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 22c | 119$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.29 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 100.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 78c | 96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 22c | 94.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…adf9backed Over | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 44.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 54c | 39.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 26.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5this page
- Kings vs. BruinsBruins won
- Kings vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kings vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.