Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9389bbd2801f268c0d46a509f537917f4ba3120458a0c4a8ecdc23743dc703a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,844 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 28c | 9,498$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 9,110$6,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,463.33 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 77c | 1,049$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.51 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 25c | 1,018$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 18c | 942.41$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.72 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Over | 12c | 529.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 18c | 311.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Over | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 18c | 148$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 76c | 135.89$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 20c | 107.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…f856backed Over | 19c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Over | 21c | 99.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 76c | 73.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 19c | 72.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 21c | 51.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 25c | 41.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Under | 68c | 19.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.