Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12e364c5bcea4df79eaa2dc06ac634f595949305e419d13d0a82dbcfd12f5ee2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,454 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d4f…3b24backed Under | 1c | 1,676$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 795.21$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.87 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 29c | 346.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e49…fb01backed Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 26c | 331.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 80c | 314.01$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 72c | 249.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…2925backed Over | 59c | 181.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 58c | 162.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 59c | 135.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…23f0backed Under | 42c | 109.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 40c | 92.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2c…f012backed Over | 59c | 84.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 40c | 83.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…d88fbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 80.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 28c | 56.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 42c | 33.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 40c | 30.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 41c | 25.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.