Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7863cfd46219cb34204a3a251931c0bab16b25c8b9f08890512b199db313c97b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,001 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 6,365$3,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,148.39 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 50c | 3,600$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 2,317$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.46 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.94 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Under | 66c | 1,519$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.36 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 1,105$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.11 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 34c | 1,029$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.86 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Under | 54c | 831.75$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 52c | 702.44$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 49c | 699.95$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1a…930bbacked Over | 62c | 624.06$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b5…a549backed Over | 49c | 549.07$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 471.37$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.44 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over | 47c | 424.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 51c | 357.08$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.13 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…474dbacked Over | 48c | 339.97$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140d…a937backed Over | 44c | 338.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 321.16$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.3 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Over | 13c | 199.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 50c | 186.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 49c | 172$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 37c | 169.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 158.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 40c | 148.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed Under | 61c | 145.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 53c | 94.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 35c | 88.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 41c | 75.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 53c | 67.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 48c | 64.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Over | 28c | 63.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 36c | 52.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 48c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Over | 37c | 47.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 50c | 43.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 43c | 39.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70c…08d3backed Under | 50c | 35.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 44c | 35.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 63c | 34.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 65c | 25.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 66c | 23.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 55c | 20.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6229…1743backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.