MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93a476b1364b17d5d48cd05ce45754d061ddcf1664b880ccb250bd41e77e787b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 8c | 1,972$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Detroit Tigers | 63c | 477.49$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.19 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Texas Rangers | 13c | 195.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 171.75$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 33c | 135.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Texas Rangers | 33c | 119.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 75.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfca7…2bbdbacked Texas Rangers | 38c | 66.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 52.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Texas Rangers | 36c | 41.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 38.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa1…baa1backed Texas Rangers | 34c | 38.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 37.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Detroit Tigers | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 29.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 28.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.