Premier League · resolved market
Preston North End FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93b39827c4a77167dbdc81a89ba1b9364ff285486d454493bb3e2a3bba7c4e35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,451 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,933$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.61 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 15c | 1,249$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.31 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 59c | 729.93$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.05 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 64c | 453$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.08 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 9c | 415$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 101 | 12.9%13 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 34c | 222.74$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 144 | 63.9%92 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 40c | 179.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 138.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 59c | 100.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 32c | 78.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 48c | 77.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Preston North End FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Preston North End FC vs. Oxford United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Preston North End FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Preston North End FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Preston North End FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Oxford United FC (-1.5)Oxford United FC won
- Spread: Oxford United FC (-2.5)Preston North End FC won
- Spread: Preston North End FC (-1.5)Oxford United FC won
- Spread: Preston North End FC (-2.5)Oxford United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.