Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C or higher on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93e98b15c12da0445bcf6c9cea213ede7074ceb1d946ae8be9a8e7f2d117025e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked No | 3c | 28,148$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.32 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 24c | 1,517$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.85 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…33a1backed Yes | 75c | 634.08$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed Yes | 53c | 626.23$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.03 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 2c | 557$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Yes | 78c | 420.29$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 74c | 370.8$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 74c | 317.84$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 39c | 167.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.39 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 80c | 163.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 77c | 157$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 23c | 127.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 19c | 117.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 79c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 79c | 95.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…e3e5backed Yes | 74c | 75.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 75c | 66.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 75c | 66.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 19c | 62.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 61.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 75c | 57.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 75c | 57.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 53c | 53.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed Yes | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aca…7f9ebacked Yes | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed3…4240backed Yes | 74c | 33.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x432e…8062backed Yes | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 74c | 29.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 65c | 25.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed Yes | 74c | 24.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 78c | 17.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 73c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 75c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C or higher on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.