Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x940566e52f5c3941057d0abc3c00e51d889436d074634e9bc60540836e68305a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,562 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 38c | 2,312$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.33 | 771 | 41.8%322 W · 449 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 2,292$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.79 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 1,901$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.93 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 741.24$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.02 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 549.45$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.86 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 28c | 531.46$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 50c | 488.44$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.22 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 61c | 306.56$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 42c | 287$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.18 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 44c | 277.33$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 26c | 198$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 59c | 141.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | +11.3wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cd…9aa5backed Yes | 15c | 129$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…235bbacked Yes | 17c | 127.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 26c | 116.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 27c | 106.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…4f2abacked No | 55c | 97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 94.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Yes | 26c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Yes | 36c | 79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 74c | 77.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 26c | 63.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 60c | 61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab3…ad72backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…5891backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5e…54a1backed Yes | 26c | 46.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed No | 55c | 44.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed No | 55c | 40.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -9.3wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 40c | 34.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…fcdcbacked No | 79c | 16.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha end in a draw?this page
- Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-03-12?No won
- Will AZ win on 2026-03-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.