Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-03-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11e88fa2b061a1c690d4bc73faa4c75e4a44d402bde32706d932e482b622223c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,500 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 12c | 1,574$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…a7b9backed Yes | 23c | 1,009$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 977.7$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.52 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 4c | 698.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3b…bea0backed No | 77c | 591$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…df85backed Yes | 23c | 437.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…f3d5backed No | 77c | 418$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 79c | 312.91$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 81 | 17.3%14 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…f14fbacked Yes | 8c | 290.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 20c | 247.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…235bbacked Yes | 6c | 217.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Yes | 14c | 211$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 22c | 130.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 79c | 129.76$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Yes | 19c | 115.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d9…91a2backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32aa…0c01backed Yes | 24c | 91.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 78c | 90.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…07f5backed Yes | 15c | 83.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…c596backed No | 76c | 80.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 27c | 74.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 22c | 72.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edf…7eadbacked Yes | 23c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Yes | 24c | 69.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 21c | 69.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6229…1743backed Yes | 27c | 67.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 69c | 64.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4433…db4fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…9f92backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked No | 79c | 37.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 73c | 27.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 73c | 15.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 80c | 14.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 13.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-03-12?this page
- Will AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha end in a draw?No won
- Will AZ win on 2026-03-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.