Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Thompson vs. Munar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x940ea4b6f0cf1b3028d37925dfe43f03654bdbef59600a6f1c9c9ccf08722faf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Munarof Thompson, Munar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Munar | 30c | 4,510$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,160.46 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Thompson | 47c | 3,245$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.86 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Munar | 38c | 2,630$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.47 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Thompson | 71c | 1,443$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.14 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Munar | 29c | 1,380$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Thompson | 67c | 890.19$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.98 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Munar | 28c | 690.25$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.98 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Munar | 38c | 393.37$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.37 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…3303backed Thompson | 74c | 361.12$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Thompson | 72c | 306.6$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.24 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Thompson | 62c | 223.56$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Munar | 26c | 148.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Thompson | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Thompson | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Munar | 27c | 134.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…4b3ebacked Munar | 30c | 104.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Thompson | 73c | 100.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Thompson | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Munar | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7d…4eebbacked Munar | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Munar | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Munar | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Thompson | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Thompson | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Thompson | 72c | 39.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Thompson | 60c | 36.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Thompson | 74c | 29.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Thompson | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…6008backed Thompson | 74c | 25.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…f7edbacked Thompson | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.