NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Ducks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x943302a65d26205d4416fdf29a0ea24fcf97e44629ce5d1ff8727f6904200947
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wildof Wild, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Ducks | 34c | 2,247$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.06 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Wild | 66c | 1,400$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.99 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Wild | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Ducks | 33c | 860.79$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.06 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Ducks | 34c | 476.32$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.55 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Ducks | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Wild | 64c | 217.78$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Ducks | 32c | 207.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Ducks | 34c | 199.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b3…bf06backed Wild | 67c | 182.01$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…fbdcbacked Wild | 68c | 176.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…4a1fbacked Wild | 65c | 175.15$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Wild | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Wild | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…f186backed Wild | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 135 | 62.2%84 W · 51 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Wild | 66c | 134.67$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Wild | 64c | 130$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Wild | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Wild | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 731 | 57.5%420 W · 311 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Wild | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Ducks | 33c | 98.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…694cbacked Ducks | 35c | 98.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c53…30cdbacked Ducks | 35c | 77.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Wild | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Wild | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Wild | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…e111backed Ducks | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…ebf6backed Wild | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Ducks | 35c | 47.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Wild | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 212 | 55.7%118 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ea…1dabbacked Ducks | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…3fc4backed Wild | 65c | 30.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…9143backed Wild | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…aab2backed Wild | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…3690backed Wild | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…2e65backed Wild | 65c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe66…429dbacked Wild | 58c | 21.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42fb…5ab2backed Wild | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…866dbacked Wild | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.