Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x944c690b3e6e9ca73c9fd35b05e696cc98191b1818be2973a35c7bad81e38261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 612.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 70c | 328.44$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 314.06$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 77c | 259.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 235.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 23c | 220.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…b9c8backed No | 76c | 196.58$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 23c | 151.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 13c | 147.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 71c | 123.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 74c | 115.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 97.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 89.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 26c | 89.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 89.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 62c | 75.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 66.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 64c | 65.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 63.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 39c | 62.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 78c | 61.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 61.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 60.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 20c | 51.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 48c | 49.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 80c | 48.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 75c | 44.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 44c | 39.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 36c | 36.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 37c | 35.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 69c | 35.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 66c | 34.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 78c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa210…a235backed Yes | 36c | 28.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 79c | 25.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 54c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…aef9backed Yes | 53c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 67c | 17.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.