Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90a978b8c639fdc1012d588a0fd74a73064a355b9d59418fbd19f338af481978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 774$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.63 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 551.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 29c | 465.57$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 252.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 221$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 26c | 220.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 209.54$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 72c | 204$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 179.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 172.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 154$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 142$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 20c | 126.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 119.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 19c | 111.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 102.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 97.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 95.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 78.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 77.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 18c | 73.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 71.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7208…ba4cbacked Yes | 35c | 64.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 20c | 60.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 20c | 53.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 48.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 22c | 46.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 72c | 45.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 42.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 77c | 35.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 62c | 34.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 32c | 32.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked No | 80c | 27.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…0a13backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4b…6ea9backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 73c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.