Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaf46fea0f471a21f4e214cc65c3feb354fd35b3f0bd2557495539eddcbc9cd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 827.05$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.61 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 440.36$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 46c | 354.19$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.61 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 48c | 299.55$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.77 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 259.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 245$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 192.58$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 186.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 173.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 157.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.54 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 150.66$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 146$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 144.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 37c | 135$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 125.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 121.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 67c | 121.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 42c | 111.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 109.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 107.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 56c | 103$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 101.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 95.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 53c | 92.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked Yes | 68c | 81.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 62c | 79.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 78.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 28c | 74.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 74.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 59.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 32c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 41c | 54.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…0a13backed No | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 71c | 51.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 48.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 47.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 42.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 68c | 39.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 45c | 36.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 34.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 29.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 45c | 28.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 27.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 38c | 27.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 67c | 27.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 54c | 25.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 43c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 47c | 22.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 54c | 18.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.