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MLB · resolved market

Rays vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raysof Rays, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,121 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Nationals41c9,223$3,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,781.2938043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Nationals20c5,001$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.7654345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Rays59c4,760$2,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.613065.4%85 W · 45 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Rays61c4,366$2,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,717.9379740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Rays58c3,989$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.3799549.9%497 W · 498 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Rays59c3,608$2,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.471,35950.8%690 W · 669 L+12.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Nationals42c2,820$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.5431248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Rays59c2,499$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.531,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nationals42c2,417$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.941,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Nationals40c2,059$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.691,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rays59c1,832$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.982,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…77bfbacked Rays58c1,538$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.1115553.5%83 W · 72 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Rays71c1,318$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.952,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Nationals41c1,150$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.550843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Nationals38c1,140$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.8173149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Nationals18c1,080$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.0666645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Nationals10c1,008$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022312.1%27 W · 196 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals41c1,001$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.571,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Rays60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40083248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3809,86246.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L+40.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Nationals6c970.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Nationals18c928.18$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2321747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Nationals41c835$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.3538949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nationals29c785$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.226,30948.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Nationals41c750$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.524547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Nationals43c702.12$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30025954.1%140 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Nationals16c700$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8854941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Nationals41c659.98$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.592347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Rays59c595.82$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.2595950.1%480 W · 479 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Nationals41c539.85$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3451347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Nationals41c521$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.6144443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Rays58c517$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.141,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Nationals41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20517243%74 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Rays59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20522142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Rays59c494$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.5435952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nationals34c414.6$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.212,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Rays59c399.99$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1641,01251.2%518 W · 494 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Nationals40c386.33$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5356451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nationals40c378.29$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.321,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3aec…0f2dbacked Nationals40c369.32$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.731844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals42c350$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1471,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Rays59c345.25$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.5531254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Rays59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9856351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a88…fd7fbacked Rays59c308.36$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.2112558.4%73 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed Nationals42c306.74$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.833836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9375…1dbdbacked Rays60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12011257.1%64 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nationals42c299.97$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.993,31446.3%1,533 W · 1,781 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe920…e742backed Rays59c269.9$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.92065%13 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadc4…1ce3backed Nationals42c260$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.218446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1fc…5ddfbacked Rays59c236.57$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.571573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Rays59c203.39$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.391070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd0…7efcbacked Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xaea3…e142backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8381…ebcfbacked Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7620…b9eabacked Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825742.1%24 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x66ed…78e3backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac5…3536backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825060%30 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc94…72debacked Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb290…27c5backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0138…cdf1backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef2…220bbacked Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc213…f12bbacked Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825250%26 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x069c…ed7bbacked Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825046%23 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2916…bb5bbacked Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825435.2%19 W · 35 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfffa…f24dbacked Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf50e…b539backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e00…c26cbacked Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825054%27 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7c6…ce67backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab5…dce6backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8be8…7066backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825050%25 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe91a…5145backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf01…0439backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825050%25 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b42…5d65backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20ce…215fbacked Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a6…050cbacked Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825151%26 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2217…2522backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f3…94d4backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5581…12e8backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825046%23 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c7…c60fbacked Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825046%23 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa308…46aebacked Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825143.1%22 W · 29 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc26…1430backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825558.2%32 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3161…661fbacked Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825554.5%30 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb571…fdfabacked Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825345.3%24 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe736…6b50backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x479b…64e9backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5700…a6babacked Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4be…50adbacked Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825955.9%33 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e10…5a63backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825242.3%22 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x46d8…c629backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7bc…1d5ebacked Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825350.9%27 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x205b…3f56backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcbbf…4823backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1405…5506backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53b…c3febacked Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1946…07eebacked Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825341.5%22 W · 31 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7280…68fabacked Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825156.9%29 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b1…7b5cbacked Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a1f…71f1backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ce…0a46backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825160.8%31 W · 20 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7bf5…65f8backed Rays59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825259.6%31 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.