Premier League · resolved market
Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9488c18aced3311da6fb050d7912721f4751555d8994e1d7ab94cc104ca1aa6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 1,821$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.76 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 38c | 800.49$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.3 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 70c | 704.03$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.11 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 57c | 621.58$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.71 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 29c | 499.31$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 118 | 28%33 W · 85 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 32c | 234$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 30c | 187.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 1,690 | 34.9%589 W · 1,101 L | -33.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 148.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 30c | 143$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 17c | 131.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 16c | 118.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 62c | 117.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 63c | 113.78$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 47c | 96.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 34c | 77.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Under | 50c | 72.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 55.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 33c | 55.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 39c | 51.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 71c | 49.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 38c | 49.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 113 | 24.8%28 W · 85 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 47c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 504 | 50%252 W · 252 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 61c | 37.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Over | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Under | 54c | 30.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 40c | 29.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 57c | 25.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 71c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)Bristol City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.