Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94933a5469f7f19dbda718589a09e49abe41ec55c5f86015da492d854d09ee64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd280…82b3backed No | 58c | 8,560$4,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,992.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 3c | 1,446$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,278$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.84 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…e8fabacked No | 2c | 1,129$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…5ac1backed Yes | 19c | 625.15$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +76%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 10c | 593.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.1 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 2c | 541.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.53 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 351.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 71c | 343.19$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 73c | 327.58$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.41 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked Yes | 74c | 311.89$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 52c | 297.29$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.78 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 37c | 229.81$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.91 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 22c | 228.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 39c | 224.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3380…da7ebacked No | 8c | 206.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 8c | 185.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked Yes | 48c | 183.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 26c | 179.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.16 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 170.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 18c | 154.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 22c | 140.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 12c | 135.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 10c | 132.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.09 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 28c | 119.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 18c | 108.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 17c | 104.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…ab1bbacked Yes | 35c | 100.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 94.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 71c | 93.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…2827backed No | 19c | 92.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 91.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 21c | 86.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 72.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…9a56backed Yes | 33c | 70.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 36c | 70.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed Yes | 19c | 65.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 24c | 63.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 68c | 60.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 27c | 58.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 31c | 57.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 34c | 55.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 51.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 46c | 47.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 30c | 47.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 45.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 27c | 41.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 39.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 26c | 38.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 74c | 38.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 68c | 34.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 67c | 32.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 28.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 28.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes | 75c | 27.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 63c | 26.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 25.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 66c | 22.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 71c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.