Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc07da69e1d7f9bea7ea488d121c77de3ffa1409f643c2ac585d0d70ae5932784
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,732$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,232$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 20c | 311.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 175.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 64c | 173.61$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 36c | 171.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 29c | 124.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 76c | 98.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 56c | 98.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 97.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 49c | 97.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 65c | 90.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 39c | 83.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 34c | 81.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 80.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecce…ccbabacked Yes | 56c | 77.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 60c | 75.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 71.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 41c | 66.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 66c | 66.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0a…4c89backed Yes | 60c | 65.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 22c | 63.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 62.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 43c | 58.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…d3c1backed Yes | 79c | 56.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec1…fbccbacked Yes | 42c | 49.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…0053backed Yes | 57c | 47.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 38c | 46.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556d…c115backed Yes | 70c | 41.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 40.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 58c | 39.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 39c | 37.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Yes | 58c | 37.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 34.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 59c | 33.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 29.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…6aaebacked Yes | 46c | 25.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 49c | 25.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 25.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…3817backed Yes | 70c | 22.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…e26ebacked Yes | 67c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 20.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.