Tennis · resolved market
Sao Paulo: Emilio Nava vs Rafael Tosetto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94a169c838920254547ce02e6142112122b7b1796f1dc1978e72746b2c7c03b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Emilio Navaof Emilio Nava, Rafael Tosetto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,530 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rafael Tosetto | 18c | 2,462$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.97 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Emilio Nava | 70c | 2,367$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.79 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027f…472abacked Rafael Tosetto | 31c | 1,714$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.61 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8e…f961backed Rafael Tosetto | 21c | 1,679$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.58 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Rafael Tosetto | 3c | 1,660$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Rafael Tosetto | 3c | 1,477$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rafael Tosetto | 7c | 871.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…2c6dbacked Rafael Tosetto | 6c | 863.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…eab4backed Rafael Tosetto | 31c | 811.64$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.38 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Rafael Tosetto | 11c | 604.38$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 1,981 | 46.2%916 W · 1,065 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Rafael Tosetto | 5c | 590.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Rafael Tosetto | 4c | 573.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…fbfabacked Rafael Tosetto | 4c | 510.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Rafael Tosetto | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Rafael Tosetto | 3c | 499.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…e8acbacked Rafael Tosetto | 8c | 425.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Emilio Nava | 74c | 401.01$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Rafael Tosetto | 4c | 399.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…a36cbacked Rafael Tosetto | 11c | 374.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…759fbacked Rafael Tosetto | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Rafael Tosetto | 19c | 264.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Rafael Tosetto | 8c | 245.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Rafael Tosetto | 33c | 230.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 377 | 41.4%156 W · 221 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…626dbacked Rafael Tosetto | 16c | 218.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 279 | 36.2%101 W · 178 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Rafael Tosetto | 5c | 197.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 273 | 46.5%127 W · 146 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…93b1backed Rafael Tosetto | 8c | 188.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…84e4backed Rafael Tosetto | 7c | 166.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Rafael Tosetto | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Rafael Tosetto | 29c | 140.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rafael Tosetto | 9c | 138.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Rafael Tosetto | 12c | 124.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Emilio Nava | 78c | 113.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 1,132 | 50.3%569 W · 563 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Rafael Tosetto | 11c | 106.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Emilio Nava | 63c | 97.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2709backed Rafael Tosetto | 25c | 70.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e98…2550backed Rafael Tosetto | 20c | 69.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Emilio Nava | 74c | 69.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 371 | 56.3%209 W · 162 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…e0f7backed Emilio Nava | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…4f54backed Emilio Nava | 79c | 56.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 263 | 49.4%130 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Emilio Nava | 79c | 51.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Rafael Tosetto | 22c | 50.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 594 | 40.2%239 W · 355 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Rafael Tosetto | 30c | 41.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 349 | 50.4%176 W · 173 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Emilio Nava | 63c | 37.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 8,057 | 50.8%4,089 W · 3,968 L | +90.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Rafael Tosetto | 39c | 30.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 399 | 55.4%221 W · 178 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Emilio Nava | 77c | 26.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 732 | 57.4%420 W · 312 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Emilio Nava | 69c | 14.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sao Paulo: Emilio Nava vs Rafael Tosettothis page
- Nava vs. Tosetto: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.