Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94b0862aa9e51e215be082b05040efb65f149c767f9cfeac36a3b25ab72144c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked 1win | 37c | 3,967$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.78 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Lynx | 51c | 3,323$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.72 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Lynx | 70c | 2,798$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.24 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Lynx | 78c | 1,889$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.56 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Team Lynx | 53c | 1,601$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.56 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Lynx | 53c | 1,333$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.52 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked 1win | 53c | 1,118$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.5 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed 1win | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked 1win | 54c | 986.32$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.55 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked 1win | 30c | 746.6$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.33 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked 1win | 52c | 382.3$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.79 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 67c | 378.86$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.69 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Lynx | 53c | 328.8$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.13 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed 1win | 50c | 292.79$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.1 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked 1win | 35c | 276.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed 1win | 20c | 269.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 52c | 259.39$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.68 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Lynx | 71c | 211$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed 1win | 36c | 200.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Team Lynx | 51c | 194.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed 1win | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed 1win | 29c | 75.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1win | 28c | 74.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Team Lynx | 60c | 59.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed 1win | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2555…5254backed Team Lynx | 72c | 54.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked 1win | 28c | 46.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…c511backed Team Lynx | 56c | 41.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Lynx | 52c | 39.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed 1win | 52c | 38.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Lynx | 74c | 35.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…9235backed Team Lynx | 78c | 33.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Team Lynx | 48c | 30.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 279 | 52.3%146 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bda…6652backed 1win | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Team Lynx | 52c | 22.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A1win won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs 1win - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.