Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2a44d5290a5ab854cb6e56a2a9f3085355bd7eabaaecaa74b40f47e91759974
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof Team Lynx, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team Lynx | 1c | 9,187$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 692 | 35.3%244 W · 448 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked 1win | 64c | 1,660$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.82 | 1,197 | 59.2%709 W · 488 L | +63.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Team Lynx | 36c | 1,186$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.09 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed 1win | 76c | 545$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Team Lynx | 24c | 515.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Team Lynx | 46c | 511.67$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.12 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Lynx | 40c | 477.57$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.85 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Team Lynx | 7c | 301.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed 1win | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 499 | 52.9%264 W · 235 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Team Lynx | 37c | 229.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed 1win | 54c | 203.15$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…594fbacked Team Lynx | 36c | 185.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed 1win | 70c | 159.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f9…19a0backed Team Lynx | 25c | 143.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Lynx | 30c | 135.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1win | 66c | 78.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 1win | 55c | 74.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 1,255 | 49.6%623 W · 632 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked 1win | 60c | 69.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Team Lynx | 34c | 67.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Lynx | 34c | 58.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Lynx | 33c | 54.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 535 | 33.8%181 W · 354 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Lynx | 44c | 38.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked 1win | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Team Lynx | 50c | 30.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed 1win | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed 1win | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A1win won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.