Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94b438181333d693a8e02c048235f1348f9a41b76fa69cd60ba65b5281e8d3da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Under | 48c | 798.31$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.53 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…dbe6backed Over | 53c | 723.4$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.4 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99e6…59dbbacked Under | 47c | 700.4$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.21 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked Over | 50c | 582$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1,247 | 44.4%554 W · 693 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Over | 54c | 450.19$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.1 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…21f2backed Over | 52c | 388.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Over | 51c | 388.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 54c | 320.06$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.83 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…9da2backed Under | 46c | 301.3$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Over | 52c | 242.8$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Over | 49c | 212.52$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 50c | 197.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Under | 46c | 91.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…cce4backed Over | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…0f32backed Over | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 48c | 67.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…f9d1backed Over | 49c | 49.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 162 | 40.7%66 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 63c | 46.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 53c | 38.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…8e37backed Over | 53c | 19.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.