Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs Sonego
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94b57a8a29c77a79544f520c12217ed1944823762e648f913ebaabaf6abe7a5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonegoof Fritz, Sonego
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sonego | 70c | 4,423$3,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.71 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Fritz | 25c | 2,785$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.67 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Fritz | 74c | 531.08$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Fritz | 76c | 526.32$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 385 | 57.1%220 W · 165 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sonego | 24c | 526.32$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Fritz | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed Fritz | 27c | 250$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 523 | 41.5%217 W · 306 L | -12.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Fritz | 43c | 213.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Sonego | 63c | 184.03$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 367 | 57.8%212 W · 155 L | +26.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Sonego | 28c | 178.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.38 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Fritz | 31c | 158.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…2081backed Fritz | 25c | 156.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Sonego | 64c | 126$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…ef2cbacked Fritz | 71c | 120.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Fritz | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2842…e81bbacked Fritz | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Fritz | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sonego | 27c | 55.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fritz | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs Sonegothis page
- Fritz vs. Sonego: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Fritz vs. Sonego: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs SonegoFritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5)Fritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Sonego (+2.5)Sonego won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Lorenzo Sonego: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo SonegoTaylor Fritz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.