Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fe7eddd08398f018e042d38dd6637f967670286ee45cf417f1fc3684d9054d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fritzof Fritz, Sonego
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Fritz | 75c | 7,934$5,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,962.68 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Sonego | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Fritz | 75c | 4,665$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.67 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Sonego | 25c | 2,630$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.4 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sonego | 24c | 2,104$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.88 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Sonego | 25c | 1,600$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sonego | 25c | 823.54$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.6 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Sonego | 26c | 599.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.26 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Fritz | 74c | 509.69$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.57 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Sonego | 28c | 448.59$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Fritz | 72c | 342.66$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Sonego | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…5112backed Fritz | 76c | 214.96$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Sonego | 24c | 196.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Sonego | 24c | 163$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Fritz | 74c | 141.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Fritz | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Fritz | 71c | 84.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Sonego | 25c | 78.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Fritz | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c6…4b4bbacked Sonego | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Sonego | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Fritz | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 109 | 65.1%71 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Sonego | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Sonego | 26c | 49.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Fritz | 74c | 40.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Fritz | 71c | 33.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sonego | 36c | 31.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Fritz | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 217 | 59.4%129 W · 88 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…1ccabacked Fritz | 76c | 13.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5)this page
- Fritz vs. Sonego: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Fritz vs. Sonego: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs SonegoSonego won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs SonegoFritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Sonego (+2.5)Sonego won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Lorenzo Sonego: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo SonegoTaylor Fritz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.