Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Sonego (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dfa20313e302f9967ec8f1294cdab11e37454bab3dd890e38d130fff6706d4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonegoof Fritz, Sonego
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7942…b60bbacked Sonego | 58c | 2,598$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.32 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…d782backed Sonego | 58c | 2,079$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.22 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fritz | 42c | 1,926$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.72 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Fritz | 42c | 1,549$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.67 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Fritz | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.75 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sonego | 52c | 1,478$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.28 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Fritz | 46c | 999.97$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fritz | 43c | 599.98$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.99 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Fritz | 43c | 555$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.55 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Sonego | 54c | 522.19$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.21 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Fritz | 47c | 499.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Sonego | 53c | 353.21$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.01 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Sonego | 56c | 202.96$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Sonego | 52c | 198.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Fritz | 48c | 135.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Sonego | 56c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Fritz | 47c | 101.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Sonego | 52c | 96.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Sonego | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Sonego | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Sonego | 51c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Fritz | 44c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Sonego | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Fritz | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 357 | 47.9%171 W · 186 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Fritz | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 109 | 65.1%71 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…061abacked Fritz | 47c | 52.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Sonego | 53c | 52.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 205 | 66.8%137 W · 68 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Fritz | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Sonego | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Fritz | 46c | 43.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed Fritz | 46c | 43.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Fritz | 48c | 42.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadde…ec24backed Fritz | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Sonego | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Sonego | 57c | 30.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 291 | 47.8%139 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Fritz | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…58e9backed Sonego | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…734bbacked Sonego | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Sonego | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Sonego | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Sonego | 52c | 23.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Sonego | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…31bbbacked Sonego | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +9.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Sonego (+2.5)this page
- Fritz vs. Sonego: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Fritz vs. Sonego: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs SonegoSonego won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs SonegoFritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5)Fritz won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Lorenzo Sonego: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo SonegoTaylor Fritz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.