Commodities · resolved market
Silver (SI) Up or Down on February 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x950ed6e8965e7d27ade94fb3f0f27c466e0d5e77c10a7104182930ccc597fdfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x486f…dc1fbacked Up | 0c | 10,085$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Up | 6c | 5,213$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.28 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…633bbacked Up | 0c | 4,094$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Up | 1c | 2,718$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99de…7845backed Down | 42c | 1,820$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Up | 2c | 1,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Up | 46c | 1,204$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3b…5d31backed Down | 48c | 974.09$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Up | 54c | 816.02$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.84 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Up | 51c | 786.59$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.61 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…e775backed Up | 23c | 783.59$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.07 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536a…2bbdbacked Up | 58c | 630$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed Up | 30c | 610.8$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.44 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea6…4ff8backed Up | 58c | 610$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea1…7511backed Up | 58c | 580$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Up | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed Up | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…d199backed Up | 74c | 271.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Down | 26c | 249.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.92 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Down | 30c | 170$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50c…4af1backed Up | 41c | 142.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…975cbacked Down | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…c6bbbacked Down | 31c | 109.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f6…0e60backed Down | 26c | 103.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +281.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…5df3backed Up | 77c | 85.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Down | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…757abacked Down | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…1047backed Up | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed Down | 56c | 67.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Up | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a52…6b94backed Up | 62c | 53.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…285dbacked Up | 70c | 51.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 22c | 50.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Up | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…a906backed Down | 48c | 42.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…eeebbacked Up | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e75…05f3backed Up | 75c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Down | 53c | 35.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Down | 41c | 32.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…ebf5backed Up | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.6wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64fe…187fbacked Up | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Up | 50c | 20.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab4b…c82bbacked Up | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b0…203bbacked Down | 77c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…dcabbacked Up | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb8…1fe9backed Up | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…ca05backed Down | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23f…42c2backed Up | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc992…6bb8backed Up | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.