South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9510381a1ed1990433ad1c490f71d913be317ee444a37e1efb6d31d6e02c30cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 1,763$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 1,301$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 1,087$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.35 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Under | 64c | 988$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.32 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 29c | 332.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 46c | 302.17$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 54c | 261.96$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 46c | 224.85$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 26c | 219$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 71c | 177.46$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 47c | 158.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Over | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 41c | 117.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 96.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…aa8dbacked Over | 49c | 87.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…e2ddbacked Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 72c | 76.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 63c | 69.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 61c | 65.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 53c | 64.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 75c | 58.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb98…c260backed Under | 52c | 56.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 50c | 50.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 47.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed Under | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 63c | 39.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 42c | 38.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 59c | 35.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 46c | 30.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bde…9d34backed Over | 59c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…3ed4backed Over | 37c | 27.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 24cpaid | +203%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9654…8b19backed Over | 42c | 26.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 41c | 25.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 62c | 18.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Over | 72c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 3.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.