South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd807f547e5428c39efa25eb1cc05dfd1f1928f631ef2e8ff1f3fe7b09d3af3fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 45c | 71,050$31,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,077.62 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 55c | 42,191$23,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,205.31 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 26,808$15,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,008.24 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.98 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 56c | 3,950$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.95 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 2,027$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.18 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 15c | 763.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.33 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 682.37$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.7 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 19c | 521.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 348.56$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.22 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 250.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…7c97backed Under | 55c | 244.14$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 54c | 223.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 54c | 179.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 54c | 179.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 55c | 153.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 46c | 141.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 55c | 135$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 38c | 130.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 59c | 128.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 46c | 119.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 57c | 112$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 53c | 90.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 64c | 55.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…5107backed Under | 60c | 43.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked Under | 55c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 64c | 28.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 45c | 26.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 55c | 24.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc078…f854backed Over | 46c | 23.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe24…b0acbacked Under | 57c | 21.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 55c | 19.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Under | 63c | 17.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…5f02backed Under | 60c | 17.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 3.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.