MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x953e4b6ba27ce0439dc7149fcf68fc3adb5f0bdf5bd75f32113512f675bf1e65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5679…d458backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 1,115$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 1,000$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.94 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 969.91$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.95 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 804.26$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.26 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 630.98$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 475.62$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.89 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 418.99$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.64 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Detroit Tigers | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 305.1$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.67 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 282.47$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.18 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Detroit Tigers | 28c | 219$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Seattle Mariners | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Detroit Tigers | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Detroit Tigers | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9584…380bbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Detroit Tigers | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Detroit Tigers | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Detroit Tigers | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…0800backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 35.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Seattle Mariners | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.