Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x954530766ab9310f162b73a6ac30dfe112001fba1fba48719e941c3b134df132
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f8e…3373backed No | 0c | 2,388$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…72c9backed No | 19c | 545.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…c218backed No | 17c | 456.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6066…db35backed No | 22c | 451$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 78c | 431$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.82 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d83…50cebacked No | 17c | 400$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…1592backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 15c | 277.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…312abacked No | 19c | 263.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 14c | 120.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 101.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0450backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d79…ad77backed No | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…8a18backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…07d1backed No | 47c | 42.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 76c | 37.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 80c | 33.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…800dbacked Yes | 76c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 77c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.