Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95580718de0690ae380508ca6df74bb47b5425334cda578f96f669c94dcee631
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,958 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,448$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,089$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 5c | 360$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 15c | 335.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 6c | 334.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 6c | 251.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 18c | 208.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 189.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 10c | 176.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 13c | 161.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 9c | 159.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 155.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 10c | 141.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 137.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 12c | 129.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c1…b52abacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f5…1904backed Yes | 16c | 93.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 11c | 91.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefc…c010backed Yes | 23c | 91.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 20c | 81.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2680…a387backed Yes | 16c | 69.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 23c | 64.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 18c | 61.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe14…8a5fbacked No | 80c | 20.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.