Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8344158f842b30c50fe93e1b0a1323859dc3edf42f82465507badc8ca2fe803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,129 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 5,858$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 8c | 261.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 256.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 32c | 251.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe262…4097backed Yes | 32c | 246.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed No | 65c | 240$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 29c | 235.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 44c | 225.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 174.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 68c | 151.51$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 149.69$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 71c | 141.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 122.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 118.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 40c | 113.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 113.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 108.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 76c | 102.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 100.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a9cebacked Yes | 51c | 97.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 92.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 87.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 32c | 87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 51c | 85.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 73.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 53c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed No | 49c | 67.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 64.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 56.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…010bbacked No | 73c | 48.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…812ebacked Yes | 29c | 47.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 68c | 36.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 53c | 35.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…b1fcbacked Yes | 29c | 35.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 33.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 59c | 33.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 72c | 27.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…d4f1backed No | 79c | 26.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 48c | 22.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 64c | 21.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…ef5bbacked No | 73c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 18.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…1dd0backed No | 78c | 16.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.