Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0270b3b8cf08e0014a3f9f81aa1d59d23f442387958c1c348f0b4a0f98fcd90f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,434 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 1,960$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 7c | 658.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 52c | 235.79$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 230.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 80c | 136.94$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 133.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 39c | 133.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 77c | 129.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 45c | 128.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 126.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 123.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 111.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 44c | 100.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 38c | 93.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 91.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 91.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 42c | 88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 38c | 86.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 43c | 81.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 52c | 81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 79.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 38c | 78.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 14c | 77.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 51c | 71.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 14c | 71.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 52c | 68.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 36c | 68.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 35c | 67.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 60c | 66.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 59c | 59.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 37c | 54.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 59c | 49.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 40c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 42c | 45.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 48c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf60…a254backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 38.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 49c | 30.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 30.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…f6f1backed Yes | 78c | 28.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 28.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 44c | 27.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 75c | 25.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…b6ecbacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…b844backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 24.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 53c | 24.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 22.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 61c | 22.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 51c | 21.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 56c | 20.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076f…dc12backed Yes | 49c | 20.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…8efebacked Yes | 74c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 70c | 17.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.