Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Andrey Rublev vs Flavio Cobolli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95abc2d272a04d068b291cd997c3cce6a22cd460c42ea8a7404ccf31d5ba4565
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cobolliof Rublev, Cobolli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rublev | 0c | 17,961$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Rublev | 68c | 7,987$5,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,438.6 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cobolli | 35c | 4,220$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,735.9 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cobolli | 41c | 1,929$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.35 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cobolli | 44c | 1,521$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.71 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cobolli | 28c | 1,036$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.95 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Rublev | 68c | 890.63$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.63 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Cobolli | 48c | 887.93$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.55 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc2…8b96backed Cobolli | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Cobolli | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cobolli | 62c | 473$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.28 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Rublev | 66c | 431.76$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.96 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Cobolli | 34c | 411.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.76 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Cobolli | 52c | 406.92$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.32 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cobolli | 31c | 321.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.56 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed Rublev | 71c | 276.06$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Cobolli | 43c | 200$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Cobolli | 37c | 178.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Rublev | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Cobolli | 32c | 165.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rublev | 71c | 112.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Rublev | 61c | 110.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Cobolli | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Cobolli | 30c | 99.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Rublev | 50c | 83.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cobolli | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Cobolli | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Rublev | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Cobolli | 58c | 32.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rublev | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.