Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95ace16dd4874bf70edf0f081e02555c8fd2f626757139f459fc862bb3dbac8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 0c | 4,421$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 44c | 755.13$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 321$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 79c | 268.91$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.54 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 47c | 247.87$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.87 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 30c | 244.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.21 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 52c | 188.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 164$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No | 46c | 130.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 51c | 106.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 104.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 88.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 49c | 58.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 49c | 51.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 47.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…f17bbacked No | 57c | 45.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 57c | 38.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed No | 54c | 35.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 57c | 30.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 22.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd61…aaf7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8e…2175backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…4012backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 4?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.