Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95d6d4d28a86d494e22f4dff9c310b77a420d0dd545d5a922d09d0ec48135ef5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 2c | 1,701$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 882.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 450.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 8c | 434.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 414.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 6c | 350.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 9c | 328.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 15c | 309.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 10c | 284.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 8c | 275.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 13c | 215.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 16c | 199.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 10c | 197.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 8c | 151.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 8c | 147.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 12c | 116.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 10c | 116.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 12c | 115.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 17c | 112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 14c | 86.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 19c | 86.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 22c | 84.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9d72backed Yes | 17c | 80.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +376.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 23c | 80.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…a2c1backed Yes | 19c | 77.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 14c | 73.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed No | 79c | 53.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 22c | 47.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.