Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef15a462a16a349656b1b6c24ae44daf0762e253d59c2700fe6ab5e432a71b0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 2c | 979.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 469.79$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 40c | 350.06$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 289.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 245.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…0367backed Yes | 23c | 228.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 203.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 35c | 186.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 48c | 163.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 154.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 37c | 128.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 9c | 125.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 72c | 125.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 43c | 111.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 14c | 106.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f1…676dbacked Yes | 13c | 103.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 46c | 102.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 97.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 76c | 94.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 24c | 89.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 17c | 88.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 41c | 85.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 83.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 57c | 83.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 82.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 24c | 76.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 38c | 75.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes | 43c | 65.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 60c | 59.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 40c | 58.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 73c | 56.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 31c | 55.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 51c | 54.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 33c | 48.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 45.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 54c | 44.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 67c | 44.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 73c | 43.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 24c | 42.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…1b0dbacked No | 73c | 40.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 39.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 28c | 39.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84f…8a87backed Yes | 57c | 35.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 77c | 33.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 71c | 31.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 63c | 29.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 49c | 29.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed Yes | 44c | 25.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 70c | 25.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 75c | 15.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 76c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.