Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00ab5636a5979fca8d1a112da5e92f9e5c8aad0bc365415d13c2e2f4e78eabd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 15c | 869.35$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.62 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 455.06$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 8c | 450.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 30c | 397.78$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.8 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 36c | 397.1$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.93 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 29c | 347.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.85 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 335.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.02 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 8c | 311.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.03 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 33c | 299.45$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.85 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed Yes | 9c | 294.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.72 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 8c | 285.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.44 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 250.01$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.01 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 10c | 236.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.19 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 215.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 10c | 202.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 14c | 189.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.24 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb14d…8f95backed Yes | 15c | 180.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.96 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…5e50backed No | 34c | 169.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 11c | 162.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.29 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 30c | 142.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 128.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed No | 71c | 126.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 110.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 104.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 17c | 102.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 17c | 100.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 97.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 22c | 91.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 86.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…0367backed No | 28c | 86.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 30c | 85.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 81.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 19c | 78.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 76.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…c3b0backed No | 17c | 71.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 15c | 68.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 17c | 66.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed No | 23c | 65.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d4…4cf3backed Yes | 24c | 64.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 32c | 59.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 55.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 50.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed Yes | 68c | 48.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 44.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 41.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 41.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 32c | 38.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 38.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 44c | 38.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 41c | 37.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 75c | 37.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…bab7backed No | 47c | 36.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 33.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabc6…acb4backed No | 79c | 31.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 30.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 76c | 30.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 29.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 77c | 28.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 69c | 27.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 27.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed No | 80c | 26.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 78c | 26.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…1822backed No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 75c | 24.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 76c | 24.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 76c | 24.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Yes | 71c | 21.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 53c | 20.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 69c | 20.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 20.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 77c | 20.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes | 75c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 19.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 76c | 19.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 76c | 19.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 79c | 18.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 72c | 18.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 72c | 15.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…9b20backed No | 76c | 15.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 71c | 14.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 73c | 14.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 14.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 77c | 13.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.