Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95d781f038a4e08532ac3e817c3a801a11d07f77ccfb0c787168561579db23b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 49c | 999.92$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.96 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 51c | 392.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 51c | 229.93$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 51c | 215.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked No | 52c | 203.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 74c | 194.59$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 142.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yes | 18c | 92.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…47a8backed No | 63c | 86.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 51c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 47c | 56.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yes | 26c | 54.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…3154backed Yes | 56c | 42.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed No | 51c | 29.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.